Sunday, October 24, 2004

Prewar intelligence predicted Iraqi insurgency

This just makes me sick. Now, you're probably wondering why it makes me sick. Does it make me sick because the press is second guessing the civilian policy makers and the military planners? Nope. Does it make me sick because the President and his senior staff misjudged?
President Bush, in an interview with The New York Times, acknowledged that he "miscalculated" the strength of the Iraqi insurgency.
Nope. I knew that already. No, what makes me sick is that this misjudgment happened at all... and that the President will continue to lead us down this rosey path.
  • Military and civilian intelligence agencies repeatedly warned prior to the invasion that Iraqi insurgent forces were preparing to fight and that their ranks would grow as other Iraqis came to resent the U.S. occupation and organize guerrilla attacks.

  • The war plan put together by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Army Gen. Tommy Franks discounted these warnings. Rumsfeld and Franks anticipated surrender by Iraqi ground forces and a warm welcome from civilians.

  • The insurgency began not after the end of major combat in May 2003 but at the beginning of the war, yet Pentagon officials were slow to identify the enemy and to grasp how serious a threat the guerrilla attacks posed.
Here's more that's scary:
The moment when U.S. troops realized they had badly underestimated the resistance they would encounter from Iraqi guerrilla fighters can be pinpointed to the minute. At precisely 9 a.m. on March 22, 2003, the third day of the war in Iraq, GIs riding armored vehicles through the southern town of Samawah waved at a group of civilians gathered near a bridge. Instead of a friendly reply, they got automatic weapons fire. The men charged the armored column in waves, attacking with AK-47 rifles and rocket-propelled grenades.
The Army has acknowledged that this incident in Samawah was not the end of anything and it wasn't an anomoly; no, this was the first incidence of insurgence. And, it's just gotten worse since then.

More on this in the coming days and months, I'm sure.

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